Fire Crux MerlinTier 2
at Ascent Akihabara
decks
20
(2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
189
96-82-11
overall winrate
53.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.8%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
50.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1367
· median 1379
· range 1151–1599
(20 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1204
Q3 1418
1736
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
10% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 15.6% | 41 | 16-22-3 | 42.7% | 43.3% | 40.3% | -3.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 15 | 4-11-0 | 26.7% | 31.6% | 21.4% | -11.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.8% | 13 | 4-7-2 | 38.5% | 41.2% | 33.6% | -6.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.6% | 12 | 10-2-0 | 83.3% | 75.0% | 72.0% | +9.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 9 | 3-6-0 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 39.2% | -5.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 15 | 8-6-1 | 56.7% | 55.3% | 54.5% | +1.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -3.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 64.2% | +7.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 61.6% | +5.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 54.9% | +2.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 34.7% | -8.8 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.6% | +8.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 71.7% | +12.5 |
| Water Fractal | 2.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +3.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 87.1% | +23.7 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 52.1% | +1.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.8% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 52.4% | +1.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 64.3% | +10.7 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.8% | -6.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 36.7% | -9.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 45.1% | -3.1 |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.4% | -6.4 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -4.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.7% | +18.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 67.8% | +28.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.8 |
| Wind Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.4% | -23.3 |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.4% | +12.9 |
| Wind Zander | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 20 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Sword of Shadows, Evercurrent Raider, Heavenly Guide. Losers more often ran: Fast Cure, Hasty Messenger, Flamewreath Call.
Sword of Shadows
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Evercurrent Raider
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Heavenly Guide
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Fast Cure
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Hasty Messenger
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Flamewreath Call
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sword of Shadows | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 |